Prisco’s Week 12 NFL: Tom Brady, Bucs win third straight; The Titans get revenge on the Bengals

It finally happened. I had a good week in all three areas of picking games.

I went 4-2 with my best bets on the Pick Six podcast, 11-3 straight up and 7-5-2 against the spread in my expert picks.

That brings my best bet record to 38-25-2, which I’m happy about. The straight record is now 95-69 and the ATS record is 74-82-8. The latter needs to get back over .500, so that’s the goal for the next few weeks.

Hopefully the holiday week will be a good one for me, starting with a Thanksgiving foray into games that feature teams with impressive records.

Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Recommended game | Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills

This has the makings of a game with a lot of offense. Both teams can score, but the Bills can really score. They will have a big number here as Josh Allen will win his second straight game in Detroit after beating the Browns in the same building last week. The track is fast and the Bills can fly. The Lions won’t hold it.

Choice: Bills 40, Lions 23

Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Recommended game | Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

The Giants are putting on a terrible show at home against the Lions, which means they could have been looking forward to this one. The Cowboys made things right in their huge win over the Vikings. The defense dominated and will dominate here as well. The Giants are too limited on offense.

Choice: Cowboys 31, Giants 14

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)

The Vikings were embarrassed at home on Sunday and were blown out by the Cowboys. Here they will bounce back and play better. New England’s offense is struggling, but the defense is playing well. Even so, I think the Vikings will respond offensively to win. The Patriots offense is bad.

Choice: Vikings 24, Patriots 14

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Recommended game | Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos

This is the dog game of the week with two terrible offenses. First to 10 wins? Denver has the better defense, but at home I think the Panthers will find a way to win this game. Denver continues to struggle.

Choice: Panthers 17, Broncos 13

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Recommended game | Cleveland Browns vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have a first-place bye and appear poised to start the season the way they expected. They’re getting healthier and it’s going to matter, starting here in this one. The Browns are bad on defense, so look for Tom Brady to have a good day. The Browns running game is limited. The Bucs take it.

Choice: Bucs 30, Browns 17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Recommended game | Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Jaguars have a bye with a tough home game against the Ravens. Baltimore’s defense has come alive in recent weeks and will present a real challenge for Trevor Lawrence. Lamar Jackson and the offense need to pick it up. It will be a low score, but it’s close.

Choice: Ravens 21, Jaguars 20

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Recommended game | Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans

The Dolphins leave as big favorites. The Texans could change quarterbacks, but that’s okay. The Dolphins have been explosive on offense all year and that will not change this year. Tua Tagovailoa keeps it moving.

Choice: Dolphins 36, Texans 14

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Recommended game | New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears

It won’t be pretty if Justin Fields can’t play. Both offenses would be significantly curtailed. The Jets have a much better defense that is on the verge of dominance. That’s the difference, no matter who’s quarterbacking the two.

Choice: Jets 20, Bears 14

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Recommended game | Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals

This is a rematch of last January’s playoff game in which the Bengals upset the Titans on the road. The Bengals have played much better of late, but are playing back-to-back road games while the Titans will be resting after last Thursday’s game. Derrick Henry wasn’t himself when they made the playoffs last season. Now is. The Titans take it for his run.

Choice: Titans 27, Bengals 21

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Recommended game | Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons

This is kind of a playoff game. Both teams are alive. Washington turned the season around thanks to its defense. Taylor Heinicke is also making early plays. The Falcons are limited on offense, which is the difference. Washington remains hot.

Choice: Commanders 27, Falcons 17

Sunday, 4:05 PM ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Recommended game | Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Cardinals looked awful in a loss to the 49ers in Mexico and are now playing with their playoff hopes on the line. The Chargers lost to the Chiefs but showed some life on offense. This continues as Justin Herbert is having a big day.

Choice: Chargers 30, Cardinals 20

Sunday, 4:05 PM ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Recommended game | Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are on a bye while the Raiders play their second straight road game. Bad combination. The Raiders have major issues on defense, which will show against a good offense in Seattle. Geno Smith and the Seahawks take it.

Choice: Seahawks 31, Raiders 24

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Recommended game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are a mess while the Chiefs are riding high. The Rams have health issues and will likely be without Matthew Stafford. That’s a problem. The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and he is going to shred this Rams defense. A broken city.

Choice: Chiefs 37, Rams 13

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Recommended game | San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints

The 49ers are celebrating an impressive win over the Cardinals in Mexico. They look like they are rolling with all their weapons in attack. The Saints beat the Rams last week, Andy Dalton played well. I think they will hang around in this game because the 49ers are on a short week. It’s closer than expected.

Choice: 49ers 24, Saints 20

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)

Recommended game | Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers

The Packers’ playoff chances are barely alive, but trying to keep them alive is a real challenge. Aaron Rodgers didn’t play well last week, but I think he’s playing better here. The Eagles haven’t looked great in their last two games. The Packers keep it close.

Choice: Eagles 26, Packers 21

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)

Recommended game | Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Colts looked to be on their way to 2-0 last week under Jeff Saturday, but took a late lead against the Eagles. The Steelers hung around against the Bengals, with Kenny Pickett showing better at quarterback. The Steelers defense is much better with TJ Watt in the backfield and I think the Steelers front end will keep them in this game.

Choice: Colts 20, Steelers 19

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